Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
